Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.24 – 95.18

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.3 ±14.5

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 105.53Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 29.6Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7038Totino-Grace Pizza Pi's

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 29.11Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.7 ±20.5

2511Cougars

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX 7.98Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 71.64Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2538The Plaid Pillagers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 15.56Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8255, 3610, 7038

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8255, 3610, 7038

Auto

27.7 16%

Teleop

66.9 40%

Endgame

73.3 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2511, 5837, 2538

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2511, 5837, 2538

Auto

13.8 15%

Teleop

55.8 60%

Endgame

23.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164.2pts

Blue projected score95.2pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.1
Score range: 65–194
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 167.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.3Season APEX187.7

27.7Auto13.8

66.9Teleop55.8

73.3Endgame23.1

40Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	18
teleop	101	12
endgame	37	24
foul	0	0
total	174	54

Result

Final score

174 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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