Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.13 – 128.42

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.9 ±14.5

4480UC-Botics

Season APEX 86Event APEX 7.23Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 17.15Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4511Power Amplified

Season APEX 116.2Event APEX 38.75Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.7 ±17.2

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 69.24Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3848Bots in Shining Armour

Provisional

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX -6.06Rank 34Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 65.24Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4480, 1816, 4511

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4480, 1816, 4511

Auto

31.7 59%

Teleop

18.8 35%

Endgame

2.8 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7578, 3848, 8516

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7578, 3848, 8516

Auto

47.1 36%

Teleop

70.2 54%

Endgame

12.9 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.1pts

Blue projected score128.4pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.3
Score range: 32–159
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 169.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.9Season APEX276.7

31.7Auto47.1

18.8Teleop70.2

2.8Endgame12.9

40Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	36
teleop	26	39
endgame	23	4
foul	5	0
total	74	79

Result

Final score

74 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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