Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.81 – 165.02

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.9 ±14.9

3018Nordic Storm

Season APEX 100Event APEX 71.95Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 47.46Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 90.4Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.5 ±14.5

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -15.43Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 57.35Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 123.1Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3018, 2977, 5913

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3018, 2977, 5913

Auto

30.0 15%

Teleop

120.9 59%

Endgame

54.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5232, 6709, 2503

/ 100 compat

Projected

165 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5232, 6709, 2503

Auto

29.5 18%

Teleop

92.0 56%

Endgame

43.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score209.8pts

Blue projected score165pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.8
Score range: 135–240
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 498 vs event baseline 167.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.9Season APEX262.5

30Auto29.5

120.9Teleop92

54.4Endgame43.8

68Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	31
teleop	167	129
endgame	71	68
foul	0	0
total	270	228

Result

Final score

270 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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