Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.36 – 139.4

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 15.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.3 ±14.1

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 8.61Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10173Minot Syber-Sentinels

Season APEX 52Event APEX 35.45Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 99.3Rank 1Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.9 ±16.4

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 58.56Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6244Light SaBres

Provisional

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 13.87Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 66.97Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5541, 10173, 4728

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5541, 10173, 4728

Auto

31.9 23%

Teleop

86.3 62%

Endgame

21.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5348, 6244, 2509

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5348, 6244, 2509

Auto

18.2 13%

Teleop

68.1 48%

Endgame

56.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143.4pts

Blue projected score139.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4
Score range: 109–173
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 167.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.3Season APEX377.9

31.9Auto18.2

86.3Teleop68.1

21.3Endgame56.7

123Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	20
teleop	69	101
endgame	60	36
foul	15	0
total	156	157

Result

Final score

156 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 15.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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