Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.61 – 265.77

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.2 ±19.3

7038Totino-Grace Pizza Pi's

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 14.91Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2511Cougars

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX -8.03Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7541Maple River

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 13.73Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.6 ±16.4

4632Monti-Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 55.13Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 130.82Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 79.82Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7038, 2511, 7541

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7038, 2511, 7541

Auto

13.5 61%

Teleop

-3.1 0%

Endgame

11.8 53%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4632, 3276, 6175

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.8 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4632, 3276, 6175

Auto

51.4 19%

Teleop

162.4 61%

Endgame

52.2 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score20.6pts

Blue projected score265.8pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -245.2
Score range: -9–296
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 165.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.2Season APEX453.6

13.5Auto51.4

-3.1Teleop162.4

11.8Endgame52.2

147Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	65
teleop	36	210
endgame	29	14
foul	0	0
total	105	289

Result

Final score

105 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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