Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.77 – 94.78

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.5 ±13.9

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 55.25Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 87.84Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 21.68Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.9 ±17.7

4238Resistance Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 52.63Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 33.44Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 8.71Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8516, 8255, 2987

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8516, 8255, 2987

Auto

49.6 29%

Teleop

71.4 42%

Endgame

48.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4238, 3610, 3023

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4238, 3610, 3023

Auto

8.8 11%

Teleop

45.5 55%

Endgame

27.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164.8pts

Blue projected score94.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70
Score range: 65–195
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 165.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.5Season APEX207.9

49.6Auto8.8

71.4Teleop45.5

48.8Endgame27.7

76Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	18
teleop	116	41
endgame	82	27
foul	0	0
total	241	86

Result

Final score

241 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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