Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.96 – 156.92

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

240 – 241

Prediction missed · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.9 ±12.9

4480UC-Botics

Season APEX 86Event APEX 17.62Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 42.34Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 179Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±17

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 54.38Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 106.53Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8887West Central Area

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX -3.99Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4480, 4226, 6045

/ 100 compat

Projected

239 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4480, 4226, 6045

Auto

28.0 12%

Teleop

142.6 62%

Endgame

60.1 26%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5837, 2503, 8887

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5837, 2503, 8887

Auto

28.8 18%

Teleop

104.6 66%

Endgame

25.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score239pts

Blue projected score156.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82
Score range: 128–268
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 481 vs event baseline 163.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.9Season APEX299.9

28Auto28.8

142.6Teleop104.6

60.1Endgame25

83Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	32
teleop	121	126
endgame	57	83
foul	5	0
total	240	241

Result

Final score

240 – 241

Prediction missed · off by 42.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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