Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

174.59 – 189.15

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 79.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.7 ±12.9

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 119.92Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8188Grand Force

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 7.71Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 46.96Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.6 ±16.4

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 74.02Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 116.59Rank 1Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8372HCN Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -1.46Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5913, 8188, 1816

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5913, 8188, 1816

Auto

25.7 16%

Teleop

119.3 73%

Endgame

19.1 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2509, 4728, 8372

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2509, 4728, 8372

Auto

28.3 15%

Teleop

115.0 63%

Endgame

40.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score174.6pts

Blue projected score189.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.6
Score range: 145–219
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 165.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.7Season APEX419.6

25.7Auto28.3

119.3Teleop115

19.1Endgame40.1

68Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	36
teleop	24	92
endgame	5	24
foul	0	0
total	53	152

Result

Final score

53 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 79.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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