Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.83 – 178.94

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.9 ±17.3

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 46.83Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX -4.96Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3740Storm Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 1.96Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.8 ±17.7

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 79.06Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX 63.54Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4182Viking Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 115.1Event APEX 36.34Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7048, 5541, 3740

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 5541, 3740

Auto

10.8 23%

Teleop

12.8 28%

Endgame

22.9 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2977, 6628, 4182

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2977, 6628, 4182

Auto

21.1 12%

Teleop

94.1 54%

Endgame

57.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43.8pts

Blue projected score178.9pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.1
Score range: 14–209
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 168.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.9Season APEX295.8

10.8Auto21.1

12.8Teleop94.1

22.9Endgame57.5

124Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	29	20
endgame	8	41
foul	0	0
total	55	75

Result

Final score

55 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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