Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.15 – 174.62

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266 ±17.7

3740Storm Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 8.32Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 45.15Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 63.68Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.3 ±16.9

6244Light SaBres

Provisional

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 4.78Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 129.14Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 40.7Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3740, 3026, 7578

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3740, 3026, 7578

Auto

18.1 16%

Teleop

68.5 59%

Endgame

29.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6244, 5913, 4360

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6244, 5913, 4360

Auto

20.2 12%

Teleop

113.2 66%

Endgame

39.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score117.2pts

Blue projected score174.6pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.5
Score range: 84–208
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 184.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266Season APEX454.3

18.1Auto20.2

68.5Teleop113.2

29.7Endgame39

67Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	23
teleop	95	107
endgame	55	51
foul	0	5
total	164	186

Result

Final score

164 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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