Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.9 – 94.13

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.6 ±15

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 6.35Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 47.91Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7677Bodacious Bulldogs

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 41.64Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.5 ±18.2

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 57.45Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10173Minot Syber-Sentinels

Season APEX 52Event APEX 15.15Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3848Bots in Shining Armour

Provisional

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 21.53Rank 34Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5232, 2512, 7677

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5232, 2512, 7677

Auto

6.6 7%

Teleop

73.5 82%

Endgame

9.3 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4360, 10173, 3848

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4360, 10173, 3848

Auto

27.3 29%

Teleop

40.6 43%

Endgame

27.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.9pts

Blue projected score94.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.8
Score range: 63–127
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 170.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.6Season APEX246.5

6.6Auto27.3

73.5Teleop40.6

9.3Endgame27.5

143Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	20
teleop	31	31
endgame	11	35
foul	0	0
total	57	86

Result

Final score

57 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 23.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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