Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

220.66 – 243.85

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.3 ±13.5

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 126.28Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4511Power Amplified

Season APEX 116.2Event APEX 52.35Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 42.03Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465.2 ±12.9

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 81.81Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 71.41Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 90.63Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7028, 4511, 2470

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7028, 4511, 2470

Auto

31.3 14%

Teleop

123.8 56%

Endgame

65.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5348, 6709, 4607

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5348, 6709, 4607

Auto

38.8 16%

Teleop

132.0 55%

Endgame

67.9 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score220.7pts

Blue projected score243.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.2
Score range: 190–275
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 169.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.3Season APEX465.2

31.3Auto38.8

123.8Teleop132

65.5Endgame67.9

13Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	33
teleop	108	89
endgame	29	57
foul	20	0
total	206	179

Result

Final score

206 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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