Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

297.18 – 253.66

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

415 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 99.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.6 ±12.4

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 93.12Rank 1Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 130.31Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8821TVRT-Trojanbots

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 73.75Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.1 ±13.5

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 143.22Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 82.91Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 27.53Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4728, 6045, 8821

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4728, 6045, 8821

Auto

25.0 9%

Teleop

164.8 56%

Endgame

102.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2883, 7578, 3023

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2883, 7578, 3023

Auto

32.9 13%

Teleop

161.3 64%

Endgame

58.5 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score297.2pts

Blue projected score253.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.5
Score range: 224–327
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 588 vs event baseline 164.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603.6Season APEX388.1

25Auto32.9

164.8Teleop161.3

102.5Endgame58.5

46Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	30
teleop	274	130
endgame	77	13
foul	0	0
total	415	173

Result

Final score

415 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 99.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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