Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.56 – 112.08

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.6 ±13.9

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 45.05Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 15.63Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX 67.88Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.4 ±18.8

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 53.13Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7541Maple River

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 11.49Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4632Monti-Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 47.46Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1816, 2987, 6628

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1816, 2987, 6628

Auto

6.1 5%

Teleop

76.4 61%

Endgame

42.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2977, 7541, 4632

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2977, 7541, 4632

Auto

13.3 11%

Teleop

76.0 63%

Endgame

31.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128.6pts

Blue projected score112.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.5
Score range: 82–159
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 166.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.6Season APEX290.4

6.1Auto13.3

76.4Teleop76

42.7Endgame31.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	39
teleop	60	83
endgame	17	35
foul	0	0
total	112	157

Result

Final score

112 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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