Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.06 – 89.64

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 112.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231 ±18.2

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 26.39Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 77.52Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8372HCN Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 15.15Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.6 ±12.9

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 9.1Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7038Totino-Grace Pizza Pi's

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX -10.51Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 91.05Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5541, 3026, 8372

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5541, 3026, 8372

Auto

22.9 19%

Teleop

64.1 54%

Endgame

31.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4226, 7038, 3276

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4226, 7038, 3276

Auto

27.3 29%

Teleop

30.7 32%

Endgame

37.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score119.1pts

Blue projected score89.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.4
Score range: 60–149
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 167.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231Season APEX388.6

22.9Auto27.3

64.1Teleop30.7

31.7Endgame37.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	62
teleop	28	172
endgame	12	10
foul	0	0
total	48	244

Result

Final score

48 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 112.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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