Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

144.76 – 159.5

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.6 ±17.7

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 78.03Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7677Bodacious Bulldogs

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 18.4Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4238Resistance Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 48.33Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.2 ±14.1

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 42.43Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 114.73Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4480UC-Botics

Season APEX 86Event APEX 2.34Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6175, 7677, 4238

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6175, 7677, 4238

Auto

29.8 22%

Teleop

52.6 39%

Endgame

54.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2512, 5913, 4480

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2512, 5913, 4480

Auto

29.4 19%

Teleop

74.2 48%

Endgame

52.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score144.8pts

Blue projected score159.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.7
Score range: 115–190
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 166.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.6Season APEX394.2

29.8Auto29.4

52.6Teleop74.2

54.1Endgame52.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	15
teleop	84	120
endgame	39	25
foul	10	30
total	166	190

Result

Final score

166 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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