Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.13 – 100.06

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.7 ±16.8

3740Storm Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -6.69Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 67.05Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 91.77Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.2 ±17.7

2511Cougars

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX -4.9Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8188Grand Force

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 11.3Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 93.66Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3740, 8516, 4607

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3740, 8516, 4607

Auto

30.0 20%

Teleop

64.6 42%

Endgame

58.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2511, 8188, 8255

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2511, 8188, 8255

Auto

19.3 20%

Teleop

55.1 57%

Endgame

22.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152.1pts

Blue projected score100.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.1
Score range: 69–183
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 169.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.7Season APEX254.2

30Auto19.3

64.6Teleop55.1

58.7Endgame22.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	21
teleop	65	16
endgame	29	30
foul	0	0
total	136	67

Result

Final score

136 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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