Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.44 – 188.63

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

180 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.2 ±15.1

8887West Central Area

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 24.92Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 134.39Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 43.13Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.5 ±16.3

4687Spartobots

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 80.23Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8821TVRT-Trojanbots

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 52.1Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

7541Maple River

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 56.3Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8887, 7028, 7048

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8887, 7028, 7048

Auto

43.4 21%

Teleop

100.0 50%

Endgame

58.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4687, 8821, 7541

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4687, 8821, 7541

Auto

46.7 25%

Teleop

107.6 58%

Endgame

31.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score202.4pts

Blue projected score188.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.8
Score range: 156–235
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 323 vs event baseline 184.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.2Season APEX296.5

43.4Auto46.7

100Teleop107.6

58.6Endgame31.5

16Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	39
teleop	105	90
endgame	47	14
foul	0	0
total	180	143

Result

Final score

180 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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