Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.57 – 238.79

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287 ±17.7

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 84.54Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6244Light SaBres

Provisional

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX -7.34Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 57.37Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.4 ±16.4

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 129.14Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 98.2Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3848Bots in Shining Armour

Provisional

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 11.45Rank 34Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6709, 6244, 2470

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6709, 6244, 2470

Auto

18.7 14%

Teleop

81.2 63%

Endgame

29.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2883, 2503, 3848

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2883, 2503, 3848

Auto

42.5 18%

Teleop

147.0 62%

Endgame

48.5 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.6pts

Blue projected score238.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.2
Score range: 105–269
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 168.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287Season APEX433.4

18.7Auto42.5

81.2Teleop147

29.3Endgame48.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	47
teleop	50	175
endgame	17	55
foul	0	0
total	93	277

Result

Final score

93 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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