Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.31 – 127.8

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.8 ±20

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 24.6Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8372HCN Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 6.36Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2511Cougars

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX 14.35Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.7 ±15.6

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 26.03Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7677Bodacious Bulldogs

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 4.93Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX 96.84Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3610, 8372, 2511

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3610, 8372, 2511

Auto

18.0 40%

Teleop

11.6 25%

Endgame

15.9 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5541, 7677, 6628

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5541, 7677, 6628

Auto

16.8 13%

Teleop

70.7 56%

Endgame

38.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score45.3pts

Blue projected score127.8pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.5
Score range: 14–159
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 171.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.8Season APEX206.7

18Auto16.8

11.6Teleop70.7

15.9Endgame38.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	21
teleop	10	64
endgame	8	20
foul	0	5
total	28	110

Result

Final score

28 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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