Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.56 – 167.91

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

366 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 130.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.7 ±13.3

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 51.14Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 50.15Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 78.27Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265 ±17.7

7038Totino-Grace Pizza Pi's

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 28Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4238Resistance Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 53.59Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 86.32Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4607, 2509, 876

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4607, 2509, 876

Auto

36.1 20%

Teleop

98.3 55%

Endgame

44.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7038, 4238, 2977

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7038, 4238, 2977

Auto

32.5 20%

Teleop

72.5 45%

Endgame

54.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score179.6pts

Blue projected score167.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.7
Score range: 138–210
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 167.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.7Season APEX265

36.1Auto32.5

98.3Teleop72.5

44.2Endgame54.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	15
teleop	202	38
endgame	98	36
foul	5	5
total	366	94

Result

Final score

366 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 130.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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