Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.58 – 117.23

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

316 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 88.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.7 ±11

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 85.14Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 60.44Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 88Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.9 ±17.2

2538The Plaid Pillagers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 27.8Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 4.29Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 85.14Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2883, 7028, 1816

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2883, 7028, 1816

Auto

38.7 17%

Teleop

147.3 63%

Endgame

47.5 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2538, 5232, 2470

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2538, 5232, 2470

Auto

24.3 21%

Teleop

77.5 66%

Endgame

14.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score233.6pts

Blue projected score117.2pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.4
Score range: 86–265
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 171.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.7Season APEX196.9

38.7Auto24.3

147.3Teleop77.5

47.5Endgame14.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	10
teleop	201	10
endgame	82	3
foul	0	0
total	316	23

Result

Final score

316 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 88.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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