Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.42 – 141.99

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 284

Prediction missed · off by 114.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.8 ±16.2

4480UC-Botics

Season APEX 86Event APEX 23.71Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8887West Central Area

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 51.71Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 88Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.7 ±14.1

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 43.71Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 53.78Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 44.5Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4480, 8887, 5348

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4480, 8887, 5348

Auto

17.2 11%

Teleop

82.3 51%

Endgame

62.5 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3276, 4360, 6709

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3276, 4360, 6709

Auto

24.6 18%

Teleop

92.1 68%

Endgame

19.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score163.4pts

Blue projected score142pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.4
Score range: 111–194
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 170.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.8Season APEX437.7

17.2Auto24.6

82.3Teleop92.1

62.5Endgame19.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	48
teleop	27	167
endgame	30	64
foul	0	5
total	76	284

Result

Final score

76 – 284

Prediction missed · off by 114.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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