Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.29 – 133.43

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 97.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.6 ±14.5

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 46.86Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 60Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 95.43Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.9 ±15

8821TVRT-Trojanbots

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 40.86Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 33.14Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4511Power Amplified

Season APEX 116.2Event APEX 59.43Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3026, 6175, 2503

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3026, 6175, 2503

Auto

36.3 18%

Teleop

111.4 55%

Endgame

54.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8821, 8255, 4511

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8821, 8255, 4511

Auto

27.1 21%

Teleop

84.9 65%

Endgame

18.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score202.3pts

Blue projected score133.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.9
Score range: 103–232
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 530 vs event baseline 166.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.6Season APEX384.9

36.3Auto27.1

111.4Teleop84.9

54.6Endgame18.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	40
teleop	149	125
endgame	90	86
foul	0	0
total	279	251

Result

Final score

279 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 97.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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