Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.27 – 187.09

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.1 ±20

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 126.05Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2538The Plaid Pillagers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX -7.63Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3848Bots in Shining Armour

Provisional

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX -4.15Rank 34Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.8 ±13.5

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 33.75Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 5.97Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 147.37Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8255, 2538, 3848

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8255, 2538, 3848

Auto

25.2 22%

Teleop

57.2 51%

Endgame

30.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2987, 5541, 3276

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2987, 5541, 3276

Auto

44.2 24%

Teleop

115.9 64%

Endgame

21.1 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114.3pts

Blue projected score187.1pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.8
Score range: 81–220
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 184.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.1Season APEX419.8

25.2Auto44.2

57.2Teleop115.9

30.5Endgame21.1

53Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	51
teleop	67	92
endgame	15	9
foul	0	0
total	116	152

Result

Final score

116 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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