Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.73 – 158.88

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.3 ±15.1

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 25.78Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7797RipSaw Robotics

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 71.96Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 28.99Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.6 ±14.6

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 59.38Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11223The Whistlepunks

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 46.17Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 53.33Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8422, 7797, 2181

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8422, 7797, 2181

Auto

32.4 26%

Teleop

48.9 40%

Endgame

42.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2861, 11223, 5690

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2861, 11223, 5690

Auto

27.7 18%

Teleop

91.1 60%

Endgame

32.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score126.7pts

Blue projected score158.9pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.1
Score range: 106–180
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 118.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.3Season APEX271.6

32.4Auto27.7

48.9Teleop91.1

42.1Endgame32.6

81Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	31
teleop	61	68
endgame	41	27
foul	5	0
total	145	126

Result

Final score

145 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 25.6 pts

Match videos

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