Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.37 – 179.81

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 193

Prediction missed · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 640.5 ±10.4

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 27.59Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 72.54Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 80.24Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.5 ±11.7

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 37.19Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 79.36Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 63.26Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3630, 3297, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3630, 3297, 2847

Auto

30.4 18%

Teleop

115.2 66%

Endgame

27.8 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3082, 2503, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3082, 2503, 2846

Auto

35.6 20%

Teleop

92.6 52%

Endgame

51.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score180.4pts

Blue projected score179.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.6
Score range: 159–201
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 118.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

640.5Season APEX485.5

30.4Auto35.6

115.2Teleop92.6

27.8Endgame51.5

27Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	41
teleop	104	118
endgame	15	34
foul	5	0
total	147	193

Result

Final score

147 – 193

Prediction missed · off by 23.3 pts

Match videos

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