Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.06 – 142.15

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.6 ±14.6

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 58.38Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11223The Whistlepunks

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 46.14Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 53.54Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.5 ±12.8

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 26.56Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 55.28Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 60.31Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2861, 11223, 5690

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2861, 11223, 5690

Auto

26.7 18%

Teleop

87.7 58%

Endgame

35.7 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6147, 3130, 3267

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 3130, 3267

Auto

40.4 29%

Teleop

62.4 45%

Endgame

34.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score158.1pts

Blue projected score142.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.9
Score range: 121–179
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.6Season APEX366.5

26.7Auto40.4

87.7Teleop62.4

35.7Endgame34.5

65Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	28
teleop	107	47
endgame	16	33
foul	5	0
total	159	108

Result

Final score

159 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts

Match videos

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