Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.73 – 148.11

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.3 ±12.8

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 45Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 35.19Rank 17Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 25.54Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.9 ±13.3

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 61.86Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 40.44Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 45.81Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4674, 3926, 3883

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4674, 3926, 3883

Auto

23.5 24%

Teleop

41.5 42%

Endgame

34.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4009, 4778, 2823

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4009, 4778, 2823

Auto

22.0 16%

Teleop

76.8 54%

Endgame

43.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.7pts

Blue projected score148.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.4
Score range: 85–169
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.3Season APEX337.9

23.5Auto22

41.5Teleop76.8

34.8Endgame43.1

124Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	23
teleop	72	45
endgame	24	54
foul	0	5
total	116	127

Result

Final score

116 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Match videos

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