Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.8 – 159.69

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 64.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.5 ±11.7

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 33.28Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 76.32Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 60.2Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.5 ±12.8

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 32.77Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 61.42Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 65.5Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3082, 2503, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3082, 2503, 2846

Auto

35.2 21%

Teleop

85.4 50%

Endgame

49.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6147, 3130, 3267

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 3130, 3267

Auto

44.9 29%

Teleop

72.0 47%

Endgame

36.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169.8pts

Blue projected score159.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.1
Score range: 139–191
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 116.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.5Season APEX366.5

35.2Auto44.9

85.4Teleop72

49.3Endgame36.5

77Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	24
teleop	124	30
endgame	58	27
foul	0	0
total	220	81

Result

Final score

220 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 64.4 pts

Match videos

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