Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
173.36 – 165.93
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
200 – 130
Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 640.5 ±10.4
Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 77.87Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 69.57Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 25.92Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.6 ±14.6
Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 60.72Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 48.37Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 56.84Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2847, 3297, 3630
78
/ 100 compatProjected
173.4 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 2847, 3297, 3630
Auto
24.7 15%
Teleop
106.2 65%
Endgame
33.6 20%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2861, 11223, 5690
79
/ 100 compatProjected
165.9 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 2861, 11223, 5690
Auto
24.3 15%
Teleop
96.1 59%
Endgame
41.6 26%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.51
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score173.4pts
Blue projected score165.9pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 7.4
- Score range
- 145–194
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
640.5Season APEX271.6
24.7Auto24.3
106.2Teleop96.1
33.6Endgame41.6
32Consistency58
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 50 | 33 |
| teleop | 148 | 61 |
| endgame | 2 | 16 |
| foul | 0 | 20 |
| total | 200 | 130 |
Result
Final score
200 – 130
Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts
Match videos
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