Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.98 – 157.72

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.4 ±15.1

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 14.8Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7797RipSaw Robotics

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 69.63Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 28.55Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.9 ±13.3

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 65.26Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 43.02Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 49.44Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7849, 7797, 2181

/ 100 compat

Projected

113 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7849, 7797, 2181

Auto

24.9 23%

Teleop

46.5 42%

Endgame

38.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4009, 4778, 2823

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4009, 4778, 2823

Auto

20.2 13%

Teleop

88.2 59%

Endgame

41.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113pts

Blue projected score157.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.7
Score range: 92–179
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 115.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.4Season APEX337.9

24.9Auto20.2

46.5Teleop88.2

38.1Endgame41.5

52Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	31
teleop	58	38
endgame	48	49
foul	0	0
total	147	118

Result

Final score

147 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 36.9 pts

Match videos

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