Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
240.05 – 104.64
84%16%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
247 – 108
Prediction correct · off by 5.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 433 ±12.4
Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 17.94Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 140.27Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 81.84Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.3 ±12.8
Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 25.69Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 34.34Rank 17Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 193Event APEX 44.61Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4741, 3100, 5348
82
/ 100 compatProjected
240.1 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 4741, 3100, 5348
Auto
39.0 17%
Teleop
134.5 58%
Endgame
59.5 26%
Strengths
- · 3100 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3883, 3926, 4674
63
/ 100 compatProjected
104.6 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 3883, 3926, 4674
Auto
23.2 23%
Teleop
42.6 43%
Endgame
33.2 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score240.1pts
Blue projected score104.6pts
Red win probability84%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 36%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 135.4
- Score range
- 84–261
- Upset likelihood
- 16%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
433Season APEX358.3
39Auto23.2
134.5Teleop42.6
59.5Endgame33.2
53Consistency114
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 49 | 27 |
| teleop | 141 | 34 |
| endgame | 57 | 42 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 247 | 108 |
Result
Final score
247 – 108
Prediction correct · off by 5.2 pts
Match videos
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