Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.23 – 180.42

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 113.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.5 ±11.7

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 35.57Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 77.04Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 62.62Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 640.5 ±10.4

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 22.43Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 74.92Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 83.07Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3082, 2503, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3082, 2503, 2846

Auto

35.8 21%

Teleop

89.5 52%

Endgame

47.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3630, 3297, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3630, 3297, 2847

Auto

31.8 18%

Teleop

116.7 68%

Endgame

24.0 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score175.2pts

Blue projected score180.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.2
Score range: 153–202
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 120.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.5Season APEX640.5

35.8Auto31.8

89.5Teleop116.7

47.7Endgame24

61Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	54
teleop	81	127
endgame	50	31
foul	0	20
total	0	232

Result

Final score

0 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 113.4 pts

Match videos

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