Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
183.53 – 131.96
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
161 – 124
Prediction correct · off by 15.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 640.5 ±10.4
Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 23.62Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 75.76Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 84.15Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.3 ±15.1
Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 28.2Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 74.42Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 29.34Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3630, 3297, 2847
76
/ 100 compatProjected
183.5 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 3630, 3297, 2847
Auto
29.8 17%
Teleop
120.0 68%
Endgame
26.7 15%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8422, 7797, 2181
69
/ 100 compatProjected
132 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 8422, 7797, 2181
Auto
33.2 26%
Teleop
52.4 41%
Endgame
42.7 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.15
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score183.5pts
Blue projected score132pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 51.6
- Score range
- 110–206
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
640.5Season APEX233.3
29.8Auto33.2
120Teleop52.4
26.7Endgame42.7
24Consistency88
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 43 | 21 |
| teleop | 95 | 27 |
| endgame | 8 | 51 |
| foul | 15 | 25 |
| total | 161 | 124 |
Result
Final score
161 – 124
Prediction correct · off by 15.2 pts
Match videos
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