Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
163.37 – 143.92
56%44%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
261 – 50
Prediction correct · off by 95.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 556.6 ±12.4
Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 14.8Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 70.38Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 78.19Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.9 ±13.3
Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 60.31Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 123Event APEX 39.16Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 44.45Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4536, 3297, 2847
71
/ 100 compatProjected
163.4 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 4536, 3297, 2847
Auto
21.6 14%
Teleop
110.3 70%
Endgame
24.8 16%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4009, 4778, 2823
73
/ 100 compatProjected
143.9 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 4009, 4778, 2823
Auto
22.1 16%
Teleop
70.1 51%
Endgame
45.7 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.42
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score163.4pts
Blue projected score143.9pts
Red win probability56%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 19.5
- Score range
- 123–184
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
556.6Season APEX337.9
21.6Auto22.1
110.3Teleop70.1
24.8Endgame45.7
57Consistency89
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 31 | 39 |
| teleop | 184 | 10 |
| endgame | 36 | 1 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 261 | 50 |
Result
Final score
261 – 50
Prediction correct · off by 95.8 pts
Match videos
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