Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.65 – 105.82

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 28.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.8 ±13.3

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 71.71Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 18.08Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 26.86Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.8 ±11.7

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 31.48Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 37.77Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 36.57Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8516, 3130, 2861

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8516, 3130, 2861

Auto

16.6 15%

Teleop

57.1 51%

Endgame

38.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6147, 4624, 3297

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 4624, 3297

Auto

14.6 14%

Teleop

54.3 53%

Endgame

33.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.7pts

Blue projected score105.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.8
Score range: 89–134
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 91.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.8Season APEX472.8

16.6Auto14.6

57.1Teleop54.3

38.8Endgame33.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	22
teleop	42	96
endgame	19	2
foul	10	15
total	88	135

Result

Final score

88 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.