Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.57 – 70.57

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

15 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.1 ±14.5

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 13.14Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 34Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 9.43Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.9 ±18.8

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 27.43Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2501Bionic Polars

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX 9.43Rank 40Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7864The Bear Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 38.9Event APEX 33.71Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2526, 7849, 4693

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2526, 7849, 4693

Auto

15.7 35%

Teleop

14.6 32%

Endgame

14.9 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3883, 2501, 7864

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3883, 2501, 7864

Auto

12.0 19%

Teleop

24.0 38%

Endgame

27.4 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56.6pts

Blue projected score70.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14
Score range: 39–89
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 53 vs event baseline 101.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.1Season APEX161.9

15.7Auto12

14.6Teleop24

14.9Endgame27.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	7
teleop	3	15
endgame	1	16
foul	0	0
total	15	38

Result

Final score

15 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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