Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.33 – 179.37

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.1 ±13.9

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 23.01Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 80.66Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 16.66Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.4 ±10.4

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 83.5Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 34.42Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 61.45Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10490, 2503, 3042

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10490, 2503, 3042

Auto

13.8 12%

Teleop

66.3 58%

Endgame

34.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5348, 3082, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5348, 3082, 2846

Auto

39.6 22%

Teleop

100.3 56%

Endgame

38.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score120.3pts

Blue projected score179.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59
Score range: 99–200
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.1Season APEX522.4

13.8Auto39.6

66.3Teleop100.3

34Endgame38.6

74Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	37
teleop	20	76
endgame	16	44
foul	5	0
total	68	157

Result

Final score

68 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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