Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.64 – 129.45

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.7 ±13.5

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 67.95Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 13.55Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 26.14Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.7 ±13.3

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 15.01Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 46.16Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 68.28Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3297, 4536, 2181

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3297, 4536, 2181

Auto

16.1 16%

Teleop

53.8 54%

Endgame

30.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8516, 4778, 3267

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8516, 4778, 3267

Auto

29.3 25%

Teleop

54.8 47%

Endgame

33.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.6pts

Blue projected score129.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.8
Score range: 87–150
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.7Season APEX331.7

16.1Auto29.3

53.8Teleop54.8

30.4Endgame33.6

68Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	12
teleop	99	39
endgame	9	44
foul	0	0
total	125	95

Result

Final score

125 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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