Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.7 – 129.22

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.5 ±14.1

4511Power Amplified

Season APEX 116.2Event APEX 12.58Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 9.61Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 83.51Rank 3Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.9 ±12.8

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 14.96Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 67.59Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 46.67Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4511, 4693, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4511, 4693, 2847

Auto

24.7 24%

Teleop

65.7 63%

Endgame

14.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7849, 4009, 4674

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7849, 4009, 4674

Auto

11.5 9%

Teleop

74.5 59%

Endgame

39.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.7pts

Blue projected score129.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.5
Score range: 85–150
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 115.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.5Season APEX353.9

24.7Auto11.5

65.7Teleop74.5

14.7Endgame39.4

58Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	17	63
endgame	1	31
foul	0	0
total	34	109

Result

Final score

34 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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