Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.5 – 111.84

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.9 ±15.6

7864The Bear Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 38.9Event APEX 9.32Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 33.85Rank 17Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 142.33Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.7 ±17

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 25.82Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 66.42Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6044Circuit Breakers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 19.6Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7864, 3926, 3100

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7864, 3926, 3100

Auto

31.8 18%

Teleop

86.9 48%

Endgame

61.7 34%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5658, 3130, 6044

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5658, 3130, 6044

Auto

31.1 30%

Teleop

46.2 44%

Endgame

27.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score185.5pts

Blue projected score111.8pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.7
Score range: 91–207
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 115.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.9Season APEX230.7

31.8Auto31.1

86.9Teleop46.2

61.7Endgame27.8

58Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	27
teleop	50	14
endgame	54	18
foul	10	0
total	166	59

Result

Final score

166 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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