Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.74 – 64.89

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.8 ±16

3294Backwoods Engineers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 15.56Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 58.34Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX 23.84Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.1 ±16.2

2501Bionic Polars

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX 19.59Rank 40Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 15.3Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 30Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3294, 2861, 6217

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3294, 2861, 6217

Auto

17.3 18%

Teleop

59.2 61%

Endgame

20.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2501, 3691, 6147

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2501, 3691, 6147

Auto

14.5 23%

Teleop

29.1 46%

Endgame

19.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.7pts

Blue projected score64.9pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.8
Score range: 44–119
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 115.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.8Season APEX238.1

17.3Auto14.5

59.2Teleop29.1

20.6Endgame19.8

57Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	16
teleop	72	53
endgame	23	24
foul	0	0
total	115	93

Result

Final score

115 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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