Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.89 – 235.79

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.8 ±17

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 21.29Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4656Rock Solid Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX 23.41Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 11.19Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.6 ±12.8

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 81.15Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 69.02Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 85.62Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2181, 4656, 4166

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2181, 4656, 4166

Auto

13.3 26%

Teleop

16.8 32%

Endgame

21.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2503, 3267, 5348

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2503, 3267, 5348

Auto

49.3 22%

Teleop

119.8 53%

Endgame

56.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55.9pts

Blue projected score235.8pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -179.9
Score range: 35–257
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.8Season APEX413.6

13.3Auto49.3

16.8Teleop119.8

21.6Endgame56.2

89Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	42
teleop	44	139
endgame	32	57
foul	0	0
total	105	238

Result

Final score

105 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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