Qualification · Qualification 66
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
146.69 – 88.91
67%33%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
194 – 126
Prediction correct · off by 42.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 340 ±13.6
Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 54.52Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 65.29Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 26.88Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.6 ±17
Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 13.28Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 92
7864The Bear Bots
Provisional
Season APEX 38.9Event APEX 8.04Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 67.59Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2861, 7797, 6147
78
/ 100 compatProjected
146.7 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 2861, 7797, 6147
Auto
26.2 19%
Teleop
70.0 51%
Endgame
41.7 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 3691, 7864, 4009
52
/ 100 compatProjected
88.9 pts
~1.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 3691, 7864, 4009
Auto
17.2 19%
Teleop
34.5 39%
Endgame
37.8 42%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.19
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score146.7pts
Blue projected score88.9pts
Red win probability67%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 57.8
- Score range
- 69–167
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
340Season APEX199.6
26.2Auto17.2
70Teleop34.5
41.7Endgame37.8
95Consistency82
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 51 | 18 |
| teleop | 99 | 50 |
| endgame | 44 | 58 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 194 | 126 |
Result
Final score
194 – 126
Prediction correct · off by 42.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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