Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.91 – 105.29

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.9 ±12.8

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 17.78Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 39.76Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 60.37Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.8 ±15.6

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 67.02Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3294Backwoods Engineers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 14.75Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 23.52Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10490, 2823, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10490, 2823, 2846

Auto

28.2 24%

Teleop

61.3 53%

Endgame

26.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3130, 3294, 3630

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3130, 3294, 3630

Auto

35.3 33%

Teleop

53.3 50%

Endgame

17.9 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score117.9pts

Blue projected score105.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.6
Score range: 85–138
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 113.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.9Season APEX323.8

28.2Auto35.3

61.3Teleop53.3

26.9Endgame17.9

99Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	31
teleop	86	53
endgame	62	19
foul	0	15
total	178	118

Result

Final score

178 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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