Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.98 – 78.98

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.5 ±13.9

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 12.95Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 25.26Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 13.77Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.8 ±13.9

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 68.32Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX -8.63Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 19.29Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7849, 3042, 8516

/ 100 compat

Projected

52 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7849, 3042, 8516

Auto

11.4 21%

Teleop

30.4 57%

Endgame

11.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3267, 2526, 2181

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3267, 2526, 2181

Auto

26.6 40%

Teleop

17.2 26%

Endgame

23.5 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score52pts

Blue projected score79pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27
Score range: 31–100
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 114.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.5Season APEX278.8

11.4Auto26.6

30.4Teleop17.2

11.7Endgame23.5

50Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	34
teleop	5	25
endgame	10	33
foul	10	0
total	31	92

Result

Final score

31 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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