Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.5 – 109.21

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.1 ±14.1

11223The Whistlepunks

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 45.48Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8422Husky Howlers

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 18.27Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 90.75Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.9 ±12.9

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 40.97Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 13.14Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 55.1Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11223, 8422, 5348

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11223, 8422, 5348

Auto

31.2 20%

Teleop

95.3 61%

Endgame

29.5 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3082, 3691, 2861

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3082, 3691, 2861

Auto

8.8 8%

Teleop

60.3 58%

Endgame

35.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score154.5pts

Blue projected score109.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.3
Score range: 89–175
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.1Season APEX307.9

31.2Auto8.8

95.3Teleop60.3

29.5Endgame35.6

63Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	22
teleop	67	44
endgame	33	52
foul	5	0
total	139	118

Result

Final score

139 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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