Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.39 – 97.21

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.4 ±12.8

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX 32.05Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 74.47Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 24.87Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.1 ±14.5

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 1.63Rank 36Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 33.47Rank 17Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 62.11Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6217, 3297, 3883

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6217, 3297, 3883

Auto

19.6 16%

Teleop

68.7 56%

Endgame

35.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4741, 3926, 4009

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4741, 3926, 4009

Auto

18.0 18%

Teleop

40.9 41%

Endgame

39.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.4pts

Blue projected score97.2pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.2
Score range: 76–152
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 114.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.4Season APEX216.1

19.6Auto18

68.7Teleop40.9

35.2Endgame39.8

76Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	27
teleop	17	36
endgame	16	11
foul	0	45
total	57	119

Result

Final score

57 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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