Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.15 – 137.83

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.5 ±17

5658STORMBOTICS

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 24.05Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 21.67Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3294Backwoods Engineers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 19.43Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.6 ±14.6

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 36Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7797RipSaw Robotics

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 74.01Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX 27.82Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5658, 10490, 3294

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5658, 10490, 3294

Auto

14.4 24%

Teleop

23.3 39%

Endgame

22.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4778, 7797, 6217

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4778, 7797, 6217

Auto

31.1 24%

Teleop

62.3 47%

Endgame

38.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.2pts

Blue projected score137.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.7
Score range: 43–160
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.5Season APEX269.6

14.4Auto31.1

23.3Teleop62.3

22Endgame38.2

78Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	19
teleop	33	55
endgame	16	37
foul	5	0
total	64	111

Result

Final score

64 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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